The unpredictability of Donald Trump

January 23, 2025 by Ron Weiser
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Emily, Romi and Doron are now back home with their families.

Ron Weiser

The whole of Israel and the Jewish world, as well as many many supporters are relieved, elated and thankful.

Most would say it is a bad deal. But one that is worthwhile.

Both can be true at the same time.

For supporters or detractors of President Trump, and Prime Minister Netanyahu for that matter, everything is black and white.

Life is however, greyer.

I doubt that most Trump supporters imagined the deal would look as it is, when he previously said that: “all hell will break loose if the hostages are not released by January the 20th”.

Or that such pressure would be exerted on Israel, as well as Hamas and that it would take six weeks for just a third of the remaining hostages to be released, with the fate of the others uncertain, if indeed Hamas holds to the deal at all.

The forthcoming period will be a version of drip torture on a national scale.

No Israeli would call it a good deal, but President Trump, prone to grandiose statements, called the deal “Epic.”

Friendly US presidents generally get more concessions from Israel, than unfriendly ones.

Israelis have sacrificed so much for the two war aims – to get the hostages home and to neutralise Gaza as a future threat to Israel by in the first instance, destroying Hamas.

When challenged on the latter aim, Trump’s Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff said: “These families deserved to get these hostages home alive. Hopefully, we prove today that there is more value in getting those hostages home alive and being able to continue to talk to solve things than there is in continuing the war.”

Any deal that leaves Hamas in power would be an outright negative for Israel.

It is unlikely that talk alone will remove Hamas, or indeed reform the Palestinian Authority, which continues its ‘pay for slay’ policy, as but one critical demonstration of the fact that it is not suitable, as is, to govern anything.

Of significant importance is that Netanyahu has taken this step even though it threatens the survival of his government.

For all of the criticism of Netanyahu on the question of a hostage deal previously, it appears as if there may have been no point in doing so earlier, because as the Biden administration has attested, it was Hamas that did not want a deal till now.

Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, in his final interview with the New York Times, when asked if Netanyahu had been the obstacle to a deal previously, said: “No, that’s not accurate. What we’ve seen time and again is Hamas not concluding a deal that it should have concluded.”

So why now?

There are big differences in the situation today that combined to drive Hamas to agree to a deal now. Israel’s military achievements, the impotence of Iran’s other proxies, the fall of Assad in Syria, the weakness of Iran and the resilience of the Israeli population

And of course, the unpredictability of the arrival of Trump.

Ben Gvir and his party have resigned from the government and Bezalel Smotrich is threatening to take his party out of government, if the war in Gaza does not resume after the six-week first phase.

We do not know what Trump promised Netanyahu, if anything at all.

We will have to wait and see.

Smotrich leaving the government would bring on Israeli elections, unless Netanyahu can find other new coalition partners, or a proper safety net.

What is certain is that the majority of opponents to the terms of this deal, come from amongst the Netanyahu government’s own voters.

As I have written previously, it may well suit Netanyahu to have policy imposed on him by Trump, policy that he himself is comfortable with, but which many members of his party and coalition oppose.

After all, those to the right of Netanyahu, have nowhere else to go in the face of demands from a friendly Trump.

President Trump has been very proactive in numerous areas and as it pertains to the Middle East, he has already made significant changes to US policy.

For example, in relation to potential sanctions on the ICC, a pause in UNWRA funding and the lifting of sanctions on some individual Israelis in Judea/Samaria/West Bank.

It is worth looking at Trump’s inaugural address.

As Herb Keinon from the Jerusalem Post observed: “the inaugural speech was carefully crafted, every word obviously weighed and carefully considered.”

Two points in particular to note from it.

Trump: “I’m pleased to say that as of yesterday, one day before I assumed office, the hostages in the Middle East are coming back home to their families.”

Keinon’s comments: “Hostages in the Middle East?” Why not just call a spade a spade and say the “Israeli hostages?” The use of the term “hostages in the Middle East” seems aligned with the aspiration Trump set out in the sentence before this line, that he wants to be a “peacemaker and unifier.” As such, saying “hostages in the Middle East” frames this release as part of a larger regional resolution rather than solely an Israeli issue.”

Trump: “We will measure our success not only by the battles we win but also by the wars that we end. And, perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into.”

Keinon comments: “This is a signal that he is looking to reduce involvement abroad, not increase it, and should douse any illusions that some in Jerusalem may have had, that the US under Trump might take direct military action in the Middle East, for instance, in Iran.”

At a later press conference when asked whether the Gaza ceasefire would hold, Trump pointedly said: “It’s not our war. It is their war.”

Of course, that does not rule out supporting any Israeli action in Gaza or Iran, but underlines Trump’s overall philosophy.

The issue generally for Israel is less the making of deals, but rather the lack of enforcement of them by whoever the guarantors are, be it the United Nations or even the United States.

And the blocking of Israel acting, if it takes significant risks for peace that fail, or agreements collapse.

Particularly relevant in the case of Gaza and Lebanon, where we still feel the ramifications of the Disengagement from Gaza in 2005 and the 2006 UN Resolution 1701 re Lebanon.

One of the major hopes regarding the Trump administration, is that there may now be real consequences for those who do break deals with Israel.

Not that the US itself will step in, but rather that the US will give Israel military and diplomatic cover, in the event Israel is forced to ensure the safety of her citizens.

Meanwhile we look forward with bated breath and deep prayers, to four more hostages hopefully coming back to their families this weekend.

Ron Weiser is the Immediate Past President of the Zionist Federation of Australia and Hon Life President of the Zionist Council of NSW.

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