Netanyahu’s government at risk amid standoff on yeshiva student conscription

Israel’s governing coalition is in crisis as Orthodox Haredi religious leaders on Tuesday night threatened to withdraw support over the government’s failure to pass legislation exempting yeshiva students from military service.

Rabbi Moshe Hirsch, the spiritual leader of Degel Hatorah and head of the Lithuanian Haredi community, is poised to order his party’s withdrawal from the coalition following failed negotiations between Haredi representatives and MK Yuli Edelstein, Chairman of the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee.

“After the Knesset members updated the head of the yeshiva, the Grand Rabbi Hirsch, last night on the details of the meeting with Edelstein, it is clear that there has been no progress at all on the issue of conscription,” stated his office. “Accordingly, it is likely that the rabbi will instruct a withdrawal from the coalition in the near future.”

Senior United Torah Judaism officials characterised the session as a complete failure, with the party’s Degel Hatorah faction chair, MK Moshe Gafni, reportedly receiving instructions from spiritual leaders to abandon the coalition and work toward dissolving the government.

The confrontation centres on a contentious draft exemption law that has become a litmus test for the coalition’s survival. Both major Haredi parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, had demanded passage of the controversial military draft legislation by the Shavuot holiday, which ended on June 2. Their ultimatum warned that any delay would endanger the government’s continued existence. While Haredi parties have previously backed down from similar threats, recent developments have pushed their relationship with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to a breaking point.

The immediate catalyst appears to be the army’s plans to increase draft orders sent to young Haredi men who have traditionally been exempt from mandatory military service. The issue of personal sanctions against draft evaders and how they are implemented is said to be the major sticking point.

Opposition parties have seized on the coalition’s instability, with Yesh Atid, Yisrael Beytenu, and The Democrats announcing they will submit a bill for the Knesset’s dissolution next Wednesday.

However, the crisis’s resolution may depend on Shas party’s position. While United Torah Judaism has issued explicit threats, Shas has remained silent, creating uncertainty about the coalition’s numerical strength. As long as only United Torah Judaism threatens withdrawal of its seven seats in the 120-seat Knesset, the coalition maintains its 61-seat majority. Shas has 11 seats.

That leaves Netanyahu one week to resolve the crisis before opposition dissolution bills reach preliminary readings.

Even if dissolution legislation advances, the process requires three additional readings before the Knesset actually dissolves for elections. This extended timeline provides opportunities for political maneuvering and potential compromise.

The military began making plans to draft yeshiva students after Israel’s High Court of Justice ruled in June that exemptions for the Haredi community were illegal.

The army told lawmakers it faces a critical manpower shortage, needing approximately 12,000 new recruits, including 7,000 combat soldiers and seeks to recruit 4,800 Haredi men annually, a figure expected to rise over time.

Military service is compulsory for all Israeli citizens. However, Israel’s first Prime Minister, David Ben-Gurion, and the country’s leading rabbis agreed to a status quo that deferred military service for Haredi men studying in yeshivot, or religious institutions. At the time, no more than several hundred men were studying in yeshivot.

However, the Orthodox community has grown significantly since Israel’s founding. In January 2023, the Central Bureau of Statistics reported that Haredim are Israel’s fastest-growing community and projected it would constitute 16% of the population by the end of the decade. According to the Israel Democracy Institute, the number of yeshiva students exceeded 138,000 in 2021.