Israel’s friend, Donald

Since President Trump’s re-election in November 2024, it has been a matter of tempering expectations in many quarters of the Jewish world and in large parts of Israel itself.

Trump has not been all that inconsistent in his current term, when it comes to Israel, nor in many ways, that different from his first term.

There was just too much wishful thinking and lack of critical assessment, by those now wondering whether Trump has changed.

Turns out he is not the messiah, but Trump does remain a strong friend of Israel.

For example, on Wednesday night this week, the US vetoed a UNSC resolution on Gaza, that failed to condemn Hamas.

He is also an impatient friend, nepotistic, narcissistic and with a short attention span. Descriptors he does not shy away from.

Trump defies conventional understandings of trying to put him in any one particular box, because whilst he sounds right-wing and poses as a conservative, importantly and simultaneously, he is also anti-war.

That is a good quality to have. As long as it is not merely a short-term fix, just kicking the can of a potentially bigger war, down the road.

One should also note that Trump is quite happy, even expectant, that his allies will not only agree with his vision, but also pay the price for it, financially and militarily. Allies, more cautious than he, who perhaps see the long-term consequences more clearly and who understand their respective neighbourhoods potentially better, than a more distant USA.

Almost Chamberlainesque. Peace in our time. But again, not quite, as he can just as easily flip the switch.

Trump seeks a pathway to headlines and covets a potential Nobel Peace Prize.

Some quarters are labelling him with the tag ‘TACO’ (Trump Always Chickens Out), but his chaotic and bullying style is just his way of negotiating. A means to an end.

It is almost always impossible to know whether he is putting out an ambit claim, or a true red line.

The main aim is Trump first, America second and whoever he perceives as able to assist both of these on the day – an ever changing third.

Old and longstanding allies and friendships go only so far, especially if they cannot deliver what Trump wants.

The concept of shared values is over. Shared interests are now what count.

That’s not to say that some of this cannot turn out very positively for Israel, it may. Just as it also may not.

That is the Trump paradox.

Israel, with tremendous military successes and personal sacrifice has transformed the map of the Middle East in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and to a degree Iran.

However, till now, it has not reaped the diplomatic or economic benefits.

Almost the opposite.

Ironically, Trump’s ability to do deals with Saudia Arabi, Qatar, the UAE, Turkey and Syria actually result from Israel’s actions and again, sacrifices.

Iran’s vulnerability and loss of it proxies, are what brings Iran to the negotiating table with the USA, a table it is important to recognise, Israel still does not sit at.

Trump will negotiate with Iran, from his perspective of the interests of the USA.

Whilst he will have Israel in mind, a bad deal will put Israel in a more difficult situation than it is in today.

Trump says he is committed to ensuring Iran has no nuclear capability.

Is this a red line?

If he cannot negotiate a nuclear free Iran, is he willing to try other methods?

That remains an open question for now.

Trump’s pact with the Houthis is one example of how he manages relationships with a common enemy, affecting both Israel and US. He went ahead forging his own deal to protect American interests and to save Americans money, but left Israel being subject to almost daily attacks from the Houthis.

Trump assessed that fighting the Houthis was too expensive, after spending a billion dollars in one month with little effect, so he changed tack and made a deal.

It was not an ideological decision for Trump, just dollars and outcomes.

Another example is Syria. Being impatient, Trump has lifted sanctions and brought in Turkey all rather quickly and may be putting the cart before the proverbial horse. Turkey, with its anti-Israel stance and geopolitical desires, poses a current and potential future threat to Israel. On the other hand, it may yet turn out to be positive if Trump can truly moderate his “great friend” Erdogan.

This is just one more policy example that affects Israel very directly, but which Trump announced and proceeded with, without Israel’s involvement, or possibly even knowledge.

Undoubtedly on some matters regarding Israel, he feels particularly strongly. The hostages are a prime example. On this, Trump seems to be more in touch with the bulk of Israelis, than the actual Israeli government.

An Israeli government, under heavy pressure from the USA, to stop the war in Gaza, possibly even before Israel’s aims are fully met.

One of Trump’s biggest achievements in his first term were the Abraham Accords.

He threw out the conventional wisdom that said peace with more Arab countries could not take place, without firstly addressing the Palestinian issue.

People are quick to remember this, but slower to remember or have conveniently forgotten, that as part of the arrangement, Trump was happy to be a ‘two stater’.

Trump provided the Palestinians with a pathway to and actual geographical map of, a Palestinian State, which the Palestinians rejected as they have always done historically. He put pressure on Israel, then also led by Prime Minister Netanyahu, to give up on any annexation plans in Judea/Samaria/West Bank for a fixed period of time and jumped over the Palestinians to deal directly with four Arab countries.

With Abraham Accords Mark Two, we have sort of a reverse twist.

This time, Trump lost patience with Israel, jumped over it and went directly to Saudi Arabia. Critically, without the Saudis having to pay the price of peace with Israel.

A previous red line.

Moreover, telling the Saudis that whilst he dreamt of peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia, the Saudis could now do so “in their own time.”

Pressure off.

Moreover, also agreeing to sell them very advanced weapons, putting in danger the long-held American understandings to ensure Israel’s QME (Qualitative Military Edge).

Saudi Arabia understands President Trump far better than the Israelis do, it would seem.

Not to mention the Qataris, who dealt with Trump beautifully. Aside from a plane and investment dollars, the Qataris are free to continue playing all sides of the game against each other.

Generally speaking, Trump’s trip to the Middle East, which did not include a visit to Israel, despite the protestations of many, clearly did give the appearance of some daylight between Israel and the USA.

And that is not good for Israel.

Ultimately, it is up to Israel to ensure that America understands that not only do they share values, but invaluable interests.

Am Yisrael Chai