INTO THE FRAY: Trump, TRIPP, and conflict resolution
When Donald Trump began his second term, his foreign policy goals were presented as a framework designed to pursue peace and to defuse wars and violence across the globe.
A chequered performance?
Martin Sherman
While it may be fair to denote the Administration’s endeavours hitherto as an ongoing work-in-progress, even dyed-in-the-wool Trump supporters will be compelled to concede that, as a whole, a clear-eyed appraisal of the White House’s performance hitherto would, at best, be “chequered”.
Indeed, across the globe, from the Congo to Cambodia, informed opinion seems to be that the jury is still out on the real results for US initiatives. Indeed, despite a bombastic proclamation of unprecedented peace-making achievements, unequivocally durable results are lamentably few and far between
For Israel, America’s closest Middle East ally, some of Trump’s latest decisions—from Gaza, via Lebanon to Iran—appear both perplexing and perturbing. By stopping the fighting across all these fronts prematurely, from an Israeli perspective, Trump might just have snatched an imminent defeat from the jaws of what seemed certain victory,
However, there does seem to be one region of increasing strategic importance where Trump’s policy initiatives have resonated, could yield far-reaching results, and could put Washington’s major rivals “on the back foot”.
The end of a decades-long conflict?
This is in the Caucasus, where the two protagonists, Armenia and Azerbaijan, have fought intermittent wars against each other for decades, in a conflict whose roots date back as far as the pre-Soviet era.
A recent Carnegie analysis outlined the rationale of the initiative, stating that decades-long conflict “has exerted human, economic, and political tolls on both countries. In 2026, thanks to direct dialogue between Baku and Yerevan and agreements brokered in Washington, [a] peace accord…[might] be in sight.”
It continued: “The key breakthrough came in a meeting at the White House on August 8, 2025, hosted by U.S. President Donald Trump with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev… The [joint declaration announced a resolution of the vexed issue of how to connect the main part of Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhchivan across southern Armenia. The proposed route… was named the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP). (For a map of the route, see HERE)
Trump & TRIPP
Underscoring this, a Reuters report reiterated: “The [TRIPP] route would better connect Asia to Europe – bypassing Russia and Iran – at a time when U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed interest in critical minerals deals with resource-rich Central Asian countries to the east of the South Caucasus region.” Indeed, in numerous articles in the past, I have urged greater US recognition of the strategic and economic importance of Central Asia and the Caucasus, areas previously on the “periphery of the periphery” of American attention (for example, see here, here, and here)
However, despite the compelling logic inherent in the initiative and far-reaching potential strategic and economic benefits, hardline anti-Baku elements, notably in the American Armenian diaspora, seem determined to thwart it—ostensibly still smarting over the loss of the Karabakh region in 2023
Arguably, one of the unexpected sources of support for this rejectionist perspective came from a former ICC prosecutor, Luis Moreno Ocampo, with wide-ranging connections to numerous elite universities in the US, including Stanford, Harvard, and Yale. Recently, a video emerged in several countries, including Greece, Lithuania, and Bulgaria, showing Ocampo and his son, Tomas, openly discussing ways to increase political and legal pressure on Azerbaijan through European institutions.
Contorted, Contradictory & corrupt?
These included lobbying inside the European Parliament, using human-rights litigation against EU–Azerbaijan agreements, and even ways of pushing for the removal of incumbent pro-Western Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan. Ocampo Sr. claimed that he could “raise questions,” and “apply pressure on European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen” through contacts linked to former EU foreign-policy chief Josep Borrell. Likewise, the pair raised possibilities of mounting legal efforts in the European Court of Justice, challenging EU agreements with Azerbaijan on human-rights grounds, increasing pressure through various Armenian lobbying networks in Europe and the US. In the video, Ocampo claimed that his efforts were funded by Russian-Armenian oligarchs.
Significantly, as the success of the TRIPP initiative depends on EU political backing, Western investment confidence, and stable Armenia-Azerbaijan relations, the Ocampo drive is clearly not only an attempt to subvert the workings of the EU political machinery, but an initiative that would be viewed with considerable favour by both Russia and China–neither of which is a bastion of human rights Ocampo professes to champion.
Paradoxical & perturbing
Significantly, much of the economic benefits from the TRIPP initiative, if undertaken, will accrue to Armenia and its people, with much of the associated production taking place within the country. Nonetheless, its opponents are willing to concede these considerable gains and sacrifice them for the ephemeral goals that have little, if any, chance of materialising. Indeed, apart from inflicting damage on political rivals, there seems little point in the attempt to subvert the project—by means fair or foul.
From an Israeli perspective, the lesson is both blunt and bleak. No matter how inherently beneficial a policy initiative may seem, there will always be elements—both domestic and foreign—willing to undermine the national interest for the dubious benefit of short-term political advantage.
Dr Martin Sherman spent seven years in operational capacities in the Israeli defence establishment. He is the founder of the Israel Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a member of the Habithonistim-Israel Defence & Security Forum (IDSF) research team, and a participant in the Israel Victory Project.
