The definition of victory

The war in Iran is being viewed by the domestic populations in Israel and the United States in very different ways.

This will inevitably affect the duration of the current conflict and the definition of victory.

Initially, there were multiple declared outcomes, and Israel and the Americans had overlapping, but not identical, aims. These have now been boiled down to the common goals of essentially finishing the job of stopping Iran from developing nuclear weapons and of dramatically reducing Iran’s ballistic weapon and drone capabilities.

Both America and Israel are now on the same page in regard to ‘regime change’ being a tertiary aim. There is an understanding that it cannot be done from the air. Although some of the oppression of the Iranian people by its own leadership can be mitigated and some groundwork laid, regime change is something only the Iranian people themselves can achieve. If they so wish and are able.

For the USA, this is all part of a wider play on energy and strategic dominance. Venezuela in early January. Now, Iranian energy supplies to China. It’s also about the Iranian drone and military support to Russia. For Israel, this is a defensive war to remove future potential existential threats from Iran and its proxies. For both, it is about Iran, but from different perspectives.

America deals historically on the basis of values and/or interests. For President Trump, it is almost exclusively interests. He is not pushing for shared values or for democratic change in Iran but rather to improve America’s geopolitical interests. And importantly, President Trump has stressed that post war, Iran needs stable and effective leadership to avoid another Iraq and resultant chaos. He will be satisfied leaving an imperfect leadership group in charge of Iran, as long as it is his approved imperfect leader.

Israeli and American interests overlap, but for different reasons. With the open question of how long for.

The Israeli population understands why they are in shelters, and the government and opposition stand as one in fighting a regime dedicated to Israel’s obliteration.

The American population, seeing itself as far removed from the war, is responding to it in very different ways.

American Democrats are generally very reluctant to support or are indeed opposed to President Trump’s decision to pre-emptively attack Iran. Of more significance to Trump, is the split within the Republicans. Between those who understand what he is doing in his global strategy and those who feel that this war in Iran is a departure from the MAGA agenda.

Unlike the Iranian leadership, which does not care about the suffering of its own people and does not have to respond to their needs at the ballot box, both Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump will be facing their respective voters this year, in one form or another.

In Israel, a general election has to be held by the end of October, after the conclusion of this Knesset’s four-year term. In early November, the US has its midterm elections for Congress, about a third of the Senate, as well as various governorships, et al.

For Trump, aside from a test of his popularity, this will determine the shape of the last two years of his presidency and his ability to push his agenda through.

Americans love winners. It will be critical for Trump whether America will be seen to have won this war, how to define victory and at what cost.

Trump has repeatedly promised not to involve America in ‘forever wars’. The shorter the war, the better for him domestically. The lower the cost in terms of casualties, oil price, cost of living and inflation – the more tolerant Americans will be.

Trump understands this very well, and this explains his decision to lift sanctions on Russian oil and his attempt to keep oil moving through the Straits of Hormuz. To keep energy costs down.

If these cost rises are seen as temporary, he will be far less damaged politically than if there is no end in sight. For the USA, the cost of energy is becoming the real barometer of this war.

Iran’s priority is to survive. Survival is victory. Exactly the same as for their proxy Hamas. Its tactics are also identical. To drive up the cost of war for the enemy, this time for the USA, to the point Trump declares victory and walks away.

Like Hamas, Iran believes time is on their side. Time enough for the useful idiots, others of their ilk, and some just plain naïve, well-meaning people who are misinformed, whether on university campuses or in the streets, to once again work to undermine Western resilience.

Iran’s tactics of attacking their Arab neighbours makes sense to them, and fits into their strategy. Firstly, to increase the world pain of rising energy costs and also by deliberately widening the conflict to scare the Western world into again, pressuring Trump to more urgently reassess the situation.

Whilst Israeli and American interests intersect for now, they may not when it comes to determining the endgame.

There is also a dramatic change in the conduct of the military campaign. Whilst the US has maintained air force activity levels, which were initially higher than Israel, the Israeli air force has now significantly increased its number of sorties to degrade Iran’s missile capabilities as much as possible, before Trump may declare victory and use the off ramp.

“Together with our Israeli partners, we are crushing the enemy in an overwhelming display of technical skill and military force,” said President Trump. “I think the war is very complete, pretty much. They have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no air force.” He said the campaign is “very far” ahead of his previous estimate of a war lasting 4-5 weeks.

“We are going to have a much safer world as soon as it ends, and it’s going to finish pretty quickly,” said Trump. “I will not allow a terror regime to hold the world hostage and attempt to stop the globe’s oil supply.”

Israel’s perspective is that Iran plays the long game. Israel needs proper assurances that Iran’s decades of ideological commitment to Israel’s destruction are fundamentally over. Until then, the job is not complete.

Am Yisrael Chai

Ron Weiser is the Honorary Life Member ZFA Executive and Honorary Life President, ZC of NSW