Surveys show recognition of Palestine would reward extremism, not peace
Palestinian opinion surveys reveal that President Mahmoud Abbas’ recent pledges to disarm Hamas, reform governance, and end anti-peace messaging are almost certain to remain unfulfilled, according to a major new report from the Australia/Israel & Jewish Affairs Council (AIJAC).
The study, Roadmap to Viable Statehood: Holding the PA to Account, draws on more than a decade of polling by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research. It finds that Palestinians overwhelmingly oppose the reforms Abbas promised in letters to French President Emmanuel Macron and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, promises later reiterated to Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
Palestinian Authority chief Mahmoud Abbas speaks during the United Nations General Assembly at the U.N. headquarters, Sept. 21, 2023. Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images.
The surveys show that only nine per cent of West Bank Palestinians supported disarming Hamas in May 2025, while 85 per cent opposed it. Two-thirds of Palestinians reject ending stipends to convicted terrorists, and a 2018 survey found that 68 per cent wanted a Palestinian state with heavy arms rather than a demilitarised one. In repeated surveys, more than 80 per cent said the Palestinian Authority was corrupt.
AIJAC Executive Director Dr Colin Rubenstein said the numbers expose the gulf between Abbas’ words and reality. “Abbas has pledged reforms that the Palestinian public overwhelmingly reject.”
“Disarming Hamas, ending terrorist stipends, creating a demilitarised state and holding free elections are promises made for Western consumption, not deliverables grounded in Palestinian political reality. Because recognition is not linked to real, verifiable change, Australia and other countries risk rewarding extremism and corruption, not building peace.”
Report author Dr Bren Carlill said the surveys leave little room for optimism. “Eleven years of polling shows Palestinians consistently oppose every one of the reforms Abbas has promised.”
Bren Carlill
“They support violence, want to keep armed militias and reject demilitarisation. They also see the Palestinian Authority as corrupt and illegitimate. Without legitimacy the PA cannot enforce unpopular reforms, but without reforms there can be no viable peace or Palestinian statehood.”
The report calls for recognition to be conditional, with AIJAC urging a “legitimacy-first roadmap” tied to enforceable reform benchmarks. According to Dr Rubenstein, “If recognition is going to happen, it must be made to count.”
“Australia and others should link recognition to clear, enforceable reform efforts that build up Palestinian Authority legitimacy, not grant it as a symbolic gesture. Only then is there a chance of building the foundations for a viable Palestinian state and a durable two-state peace.”
The study concludes that granting recognition based on promises alone risks either a collapse of the PA’s already fragile legitimacy or international acceptance of a corrupt regime unable to deliver peace.
Australia, Canada, the UK, France and other countries are expected to endorse Palestinian statehood at the UN General Assembly in New York next week.
