Netanyahu’s new government, its agenda and challenges
Tel Aviv-based think tank fellow, columnist and editor Shmuel Rosner presented the latest Australia/Israel & Jewish Affairs Council (AIJAC) webinar, speaking on “Netanyahu’s New Government, its Agenda and Challenges”.
He said the good news is that Israel now has a functioning majority coalition government after five elections, which can bring some stability, something even Israelis who don’t support this Government should welcome. It is coherent – Israel’s most right-wing religious ever. This, he explained, has many reasons, including demographic changes in the nature of Israel’s population, some opposition factions failing to pass the electoral threshold, and others disintegrating.
He noted half of the coalition is from Likud, and the other half is highly religious, with the ultra-Orthodox parties and a religious Zionist party. Religious Zionist parties, he added, are usually part of a right-wing coalition, but this incarnation is far more conservative and religious than previous such parties, so the coalition is half secular and half very to ultra-religious.
He said the Government faces many challenges, including crises it must deal with, such as inflation and the economy, which need pragmatic solutions. When Netanyahu introduced his Government, he addressed three main issues, Rosen explained – Iran, the Abraham Accords, and the economy.
The argument, to which he says there is some truth, is that in the 1990s, the Supreme Court altered the system, taking too much power while reducing the Knesset’s power. Thus, there is a need to restore sovereignty to the people, with the legal system advising and safeguarding legislation rather than having “legislation from the bench.” The coalition argues that this is necessary to strengthen the people and allow governments to enact their policies without the legal system interfering and won’t damage Israeli democracy. Part of the opposition argues for no change, saying any weakening of the system will weaken Israeli democracy, while another stream agrees some change is necessary but feels the Government is going too far and hopes for a compromise.
He is not optimistic that there can be a compromise. Despite President Herzog trying to achieve one, he said, the coalition is in a triumphant mood and not seeing the need.
Regarding another goal, faith and religious affairs, he explained that the right-wing narrative is that Israel has become secularised, with religious laws not diligently enforced, weakening Israel’s Jewish identity. They, therefore, want to strengthen it through school curriculums and by weakening the influence of the Progressive movement, LGBTIQ advocates, anti-Zionist advocates and NGOs, and similar activists. He added this worries Israelis on the other side, so he expects years of battle between the two camps, with some proposed measures happening and others not.
He doesn’t think it will be “dramatically different” to what we’ve seen in previous governments, but on some issues, such as conversions and worship rights at the Western Wall, religious coalition parties are ambitious because they promised their voters change and conditioned their participation in government on it.
He couldn’t say whether the proposed changes to the Law of Return will occur. Some Government members are highly motivated for reform, but Netanyahu says it won’t change. The logic in restricting those it benefits to only those with a Jewish parent, as is proposed, is that many currently immigrating under it have only one Jewish grandparent, are not recognised as Jewish according to religious standards, and don’t identify as Jewish. This proposal, he said, would concern Diaspora communities where many have only one Jewish grandparent and urges wide consultation with the broader Jewish world before any change.
On whether Diaspora Jews should criticise Israel, he said they should be pragmatic, and participate in debate if they can influence policy, but surveys show Diaspora attempts to do so have little impact, and can be damaging. He added that it’s important not to criticise more than praise, as it would be a problem if Israelis see world Jewry as an obstacle, and advises against airing frustrations.
While he says betting on any Israeli government lasting a full term is a huge risk, he thinks this Government can survive for the foreseeable future because it is coherent and has the ability to control its radical elements. Its leader understands another election would be risky, especially with a highly vindictive opposition determined to crush its reforms. Therefore, Rosner said, world leaders need to look at this Government seriously, understand this is the elected government, and understand its policies. So Iran needs to consider if the Government is serious about stopping Iran’s nuclear weapons, the Saudis need to consider whether they want to wait for another Israeli government before improving ties, and the US whether it wants to pick fights or seek common ground.
Ben-Gvir did so well, he said, because many Jewish Israelis saw Arab Israeli rioting as a great danger, felt internal security was declining and were reminded that many Arab Israelis hadn’t accepted Israel being a democratic Jewish majority state. Many residents of Israel’s peripheral areas, even formerly centre-left voters, sent a message that riots and criminality would not be tolerated.
He added that whether Ben-Gvir becomes more rational, responsible and disciplined is up to him – some former renegades have become pragmatic, and those that haven’t have been cast aside. If he can keep his promises, such as restoring order in the Negev, he may become more popular. Otherwise, he may revert to being marginal.
Rosner sees no tendency for the Government to change Israel’s policy on Ukraine and Russia, as Israelis support the current policy not to ruin Israel’s relations with Russia. Israelis understand Russia is the aggressor but don’t see the need to act to the detriment of Israel, given Russian influence over Israel’s security situation in Syria.
The debate in Israel is currently so fierce, he said, because it’s not just on one issue but because one side is seen as trying to change the nature of the democratic game. One side is saying it won, so it has the right to rule, and the other is saying that if that is undemocratic, it need not be obeyed. He regards such rhetoric as unhealthy.
One whether Netanyahu can moderate this Government, Rosner said Netanyahu is in an awkward position. Previously, he has always ensured he was in the political centre of his coalitions so that he could moderate them. Now Likud is the most left-wing member. However, all members recognise that they have no better option – it is the fully right-wing government they wanted, so if it doesn’t survive, it will signal to voters the right can’t govern, and they should elect someone else.
Proving it can be coherent and pragmatic will provide a good platform for the next election. This, he said, gives Netanyahu the power to moderate the Government, and he hopes it will be enough to bring the coalition partners to face reality.
He believes Netanyahu’s criminal trial will likely take years, including appeals, and the speculation is it will end in many years’ time in a plea bargain that Netanyahu leaves the government and the charges are dropped, so he doesn’t see it being an obstacle for the Government.
He describes the Abraham Accords as Netanyahu’s “great ambition”, saying Netanyahu would like to add Saudi Arabia. However, this depends mainly on Saudi considerations of relations with Iran, Russia and the US. If the Saudis feel a stronger bond with Israel is necessary, they will move. If not, they will wait.
The Palestine issue, he said, is on the back-burner, but all security sources are warning that the situation in the territories is volatile, and even small changes could ignite tension and even lead to a third intifada. It that was to happen, and Israelis were to blame the Government, that would weaken it, he added, but if they blame the Palestinians and rally to the Government, that would strengthen it, and could even see new parties join.
Israel is currently waiting for a change of Palestinian leadership, with Abbas very old, and a factional battle expected when he goes, he concluded.
