General Amidror and Professor Inbar survey the strategic landscape
General Amidror, currently the Anne and Greg Rosshandler Senior Fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS), and a former National Security Advisor to Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, and Professor Inbar, President of JISS, spoke about the key themes emerging in a changing Middle East.
Discussing American involvement in the region, Amidror explained that after a spate of bad experiences in the Middle East, especially Iraq and Afghanistan, which has left Washington “tired”, America isn’t quite leaving the region but is becoming less involved while devoting more of its efforts to Great Power competition in the Indo-Pacific and Europe.
Joel Burnie, Jeremy Jones, General (Ret’d) Yaakov Amidror, Prof Ephraim Inbar, Dr Colin Rubenstein
Iranian aggression and destabilising activities in four Arab countries – Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen – was another major regional dynamic, including Iran’s support for Palestinian terrorist groups, all of which are part of an attempt to build a Shi’ite empire.
“Their aggression will become unlimited if they have nuclear capabilities,” General Amidror warned regarding Iran’s potential. “We will see much more aggression out of Iran… Israel is fighting Iran every day. The most successful element they have is Hezbollah in Lebanon. They are trying to build something of their own control in Syria. We don’t want that, through Syria, they should send weapons systems to Lebanon. Our success rate is very high in containing Iran but it’s hard with the transfers of weapon systems.”
He argued that the Arab world has seen no fundamental changes as a result of the Arab Spring but that what has changed has been the normalisation agreements between Israel and several Arab states, the Abraham Accords. Hope was expressed that more countries, including Saudi Arabia, could also be brought into the Accords.
“What does it mean for Israel?” General Amidror asked. “For the first time, it’s as important to the Arab states as it is to Israel,” he said regarding relations between the countries. “The key to the Middle East is no longer in the hands of the Palestinians. The Arab countries are ready to have relations because they have their own interests.”
Both speakers stressed that, regarding the judicial reform debate currently raging in Israel, a compromise is needed to be able to maintain social cohesion.
“We need a compromise to give us some time to build a new social contract because of the tensions within Israeli society,” Professor Inbar said. “The discourse is acerbic, so we have to lower the flames.”
“Israeli [President] Herzog put a compromise on the table that [both] sides won’t accept, [meaning] that it’s a good compromise,” General Amidror added, stating that he knew for sure that the President is working very hard to find a compromise, which he also actively supports.
“There are many ifs, but there is a way out,” he said. “The system cannot work the way it has been up to now. To make a new balance in the system will not be easy. The situation is not a happy one, and I hope we will emerge stronger.”
Inbar stressed Israel’s deepening relations with many countries in Asia, many also concerned about China, including South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Thailand, Australia and India. Israel’s expanding relationship with India was emphasised as particularly important.
Amidror and Inbar also both described Saudi Arabia’s decision to re-establish ties with Iran, despite appearances, as not necessarily negative for Israel.
