Michael Kuttner gazes into his crystal ball

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Living in a country where the rhythm of life is governed by the Jewish calendar it is easy enough to miss the change of years as the rest of the world slides from 2014 to 2015 amidst fireworks and booze-filled parties.

Michael Kuttner

There are in fact certain places in Tel Aviv and other locations where the same festivities take place but the mass media hoopla associated elsewhere with the civil New Year is generally missing here. The 1^st of January is a normal working and school day. Shops will likely advertise sales but they are touted as end of season bargains, that is winter (which has really only just started), rather than New Year bargains.

As the world celebrates the advent of 2015, commentators will be busy trying to predict events and jumping to conclusions as to how we will be impacted by them. The only thing which is totally unpredictable is the weather. True, the seasons will still change but the severity and extremes which many parts of the globe have experienced make forecasting somewhat tricky. Trying to forecast political and international occurrences can also be fraught with danger but there are certain scenarios almost certainly bound to happen. That being the case let me postulate my own crystal ball predictions for 2015 as I see them from this center of the universe.

Israel: It will be more of the same or most probably worse. Nothing that we can or will do, short of committing collective suicide, is likely to satisfy an international community so degraded by hypocrisy and moral degeneracy that it can no longer distinguish between good and evil. Moreover even if it can make the distinction its will to act is hobbled by politicians who prefer to ignore the core problems and instead concentrate on meaningless rhetoric, gratuitous advice and a visceral fear of calling a spade a spade. In other words we can expect the UN to ignore hate and incitement against Israel and Jews while at the same time urging us to make gestures which will endanger every single Israeli.

PA/Hamas: this internationally funded bunch of non peace partners will do anything to avoid sitting down with Israel and taking any meaningful steps to prepare their public for compromises. Thus, hate and delegitimisation will continue, terror will be supported, western media and politicians will prefer to be hoodwinked and the UN and its associated agencies will be made willing tools of lies.

Islamic terror: this will manifest itself not only in the Middle East but also in other parts of the world. Politicians will huff and puff but the tough decisions required to combat and eliminate this scourge will be sadly lacking.

The UN: this corrupt body will continue to be hijacked by a coalition of Israel-hating nations whose records on human rights and democratic values is abysmal. A new group of countries take their place on the Security Council from 1 January. They promise to be sympathetic to any Israel bashing campaign. Australia which has consistently sided with the moral minority is replaced by New Zealand whose voting record on Israel is likely to be somewhat different. An interesting analysis on this subject will follow in a subsequent op-ed.

UN Human Rights Commission: this misnamed body whose majority membership consists of the worst abusers of human rights imaginable will pass more resolutions condemning Israel than any other country.

EU: nothing positive can be expected from this continent which seems intent on appeasing those who seek our demise. Chancellor Merkel is a genuine friend but she is a lone voice of sanity when it comes to Israel. Judeophobia will increase and we are likely to see a rising number of Jews abandoning Europe and making their way home to Israel. France meanwhile will shed crocodile tears, pledge to fight Jew hatred while at the same time appease those very groups which are inciting against Jews. The growing electoral power of these groups will cause European and Scandinavian politicians to abase themselves even further.

Iran: their relentless march to nuclear weapons continues and it may be that only Israel will do something about it.

Turkey: this NATO member will increase its sponsorship of Hamas and suppress any political opposition. One has to wonder how NATO can have as a member a country which carried out genocide against its Armenian citizens and refuses to acknowledge any culpability. Moreover this is a country which continues to illegally occupy part of Cyprus while it has no compunction in accusing Israel. The deathly silence from NATO members to this hypocrisy is deafening.

Jew hatred: this will continue to mutate into anti Israel hatred and thrive ever stronger in places like Scandinavia, Holland and the UK.

North Korea: this rogue bully will take comfort from the impotence of the USA and allies and no doubt will intensify its efforts to export weapons of mass destruction to terror groups and regimes while at the same time continuing to threaten all and sundry. Meanwhile its citizens will suffer death and deprivation but those in charge are safe in the knowledge that the international community is unwilling to challenge them, preferring instead to bash up Israel.

Russia & China: these two paragons of civil rights and democracy and illegal occupiers of Crimea and Tibet respectively, will continue to prop up some of the world’s worst serial abusers but have no compunction in supporting any and every resolution against Israel in world forums.

Christians: the persecution, ethnic cleansing and murder of Christians by Islamic fanatics in Africa, Asia and the Middle East will carry on with nary a peep from Christian leaders, most of whom prefer to pick on Israel. The Pope has raised his voice in protest but that will not save one Christian from being beheaded, raped or forcibly kidnapped and converted to Islam. Evangelical Christians in the main remain true friends of Israel and can be guaranteed to speak up, demonstrate and advocate on our behalf. Most of the mainstream denominations have joined those revisionists of Jewish Biblical history who deny the Jewish connection to Israel and this trend will intensify.

USA: an interesting tussle of power between the new Congress and Senate with the White House and State Department is likely to enliven the scene. This struggle between elected representatives who see Israel as a lone outpost of democracy and liberal values with a President and historically far from sympathetic State Department should provide some drama in the coming year. Past flip flops on red lines and failures do not bode well.

Elections: 2015 sees the UK and Israel going to the polls. In the UK Cameron fatigue may well result in a hung Parliament again. If the Labour Party leader, Milliband, scrapes in as PM we can expect a rough ride ahead because his pandering to his extreme left wing and desire to distance himself from any perceived taint of connection to the Jewish State will result in a totally unbalanced approach to events in this region.

As far as the Israeli elections are concerned the only prediction one can safely make is that the next coalition will be as unstable as the current one. On the other hand in a country where political drama takes place every five minutes, nothing can be taken for granted. Netanyahu fatigue may well see a change but then again, Tzippi Livni turn off may also doom the Labour Party. The best crystal ball in the world cannot predict anything to do with Israeli political shenanigans.

Have you reached the conclusion that my predictions spell doom and gloom? Sorry if it seems so because I believe in reality rather than wishful hallucinatory thinking. Therefore believing that 2015 is about usher in an era of peace, brotherly & sisterly love and a sudden understanding for the threats that the Jewish State in particular and Jews generally face is stretching credibility a bit too far. It won’t happen any time soon and unless the promised messianic age occurs it will not happen next year either.

Meantime, here are some positive developments:

This year will undoubtedly see more medical advances pioneered by Israel to benefit all of humanity.

At the end of 2014 some 176,000 babies were born in Israel and our population reached 8.2 million. During the year just ended 23,000 Olim (immigrants) made a conscious decision to come home to the Jewish State. This year promises another record influx – great news.

Michael Kuttner is a Jewish New Zealander who for many years was actively involved with various communal organisations connected to Judaism and Israel. He now lives in Israel and is J-Wire’s correspondent in the region.